Tuesday, December 26, 2017

10 Predictions for 2018

It's that time of the year where folks make predictions for 2018. Here are mine:
  1. AR: We’ll see another AR hit like Pokemon Go, except that it will stick more and connect you with your friends, not random strangers. 
  2. SF Bay Area real estate loses 10% or more of value due to loss of SALT deductions, increased mortgage rates, and the fact that Uber and Airbnb IPOs won't be liquid for employees until 2019. 
  3. Democrats will regain the House but not the Senate. The Senate is too hard to regain because few Republican senate candidates up for reelection are alleged child molesters. 
  4. A Google Home / Alexa / Apple HomePod in every kitchen: 33% or more households in the US have a voice-activated assistant device. 
  5. Apple will hit $1T in market cap (possibly as early as Q2) thanks to the increased profits from iPhone X. 
  6. Amazon announces Austin, TX as its HQ2. 
  7. Bitcoin investors will realize that a currency where transactions need >1 hours to complete isn’t liquid enough for anything but speculation. One of the following coins will have higher transaction volume than Bitcoin by the end of 2018: Bitcoin Cash, Ethereum, Litecoin, or Ripple. 
  8. E-government: A large EU member country (>10M population) announces plans to X-Road, the Estonian e-government solution. 
  9. Tesla announces the Model Y and takes more pre-orders for in the first week than they did it than Model 3. 
  10. Total renewable energy production in the US (14.9% in 2016) will exceed coal (30.4% in 2016) in 2018.